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A ratio and formula for transmission dynamics of COVID-19
Charles Cheng Xia xc7788@gmail.com xc20200728.cnxiv [PDF]
Abstract
A basic reproductive number Ro is an important in dynamics of a newly emerged and rapidly growing infectious disease outbreak, such as COVID-19. However, the current researches indicated that Ro for COVID-19 is quite affected by many other factors or parameters.
To find the alternative index for the reality of spread of the COVID-19, a study based on the population of 2,067.14 millions from seven countries, USA, UK, Brazil, India, South Africa, Canada and Sweden, was conducted and the weekly new case ratio as index for mathematical method or anticipatable formula for application was introduced. In addition, it could be used for evaluating Ro value and setting a methodological formula or index for other contagious disease in the future.
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PUBLIC HEALTH
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard >> World Health Organization (WHO) (WHO / Homepage) >> Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), USA >> Public Health Agency of Canada >> BC Centre for Disease Control (BC, Canada) |
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Epidemiology
>> International Journal of Epidemiology >> Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health |
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Biostatistics
>> Canada's national statistical agency |
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